Welcome to the 88th edition of our weekly newsletter! I’m Chenghao Sun, a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, Council Member of The Chinese Association of American Studies and a visiting scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School (fall 2024).
ChinAffairsplus is a newsletter that shares articles by Chinese academics on topics such as China’s foreign policy, China-U.S. relations, China-Europe relations, and more. This newsletter was co-founded by my research assistant, ZHANG Xueyu, and me.
Through carefully selected Chinese academic articles, we aim to provide you with key insights into the issues that China’s academic and strategic communities are focused on. We will highlight why each article matters and the most important takeaways. Questions and feedback can be addressed to sch0625@gmail.com
Today, we have selected an article written by Niu Xinchun, who analyzes the Path and Influence of Power Pattern Transformation in the Middle East.
Summary
Before the conflict in Gaza, the Romance of the Three Kingdoms between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran was staged in the Middle East, with Iran as the center of contradiction and the relationship between Iran and Israel as the main contradiction. There are significant differences in the nature and sources of power among countries, which are complex and fragile and abide by the corresponding rules of the game.After the conflict in Gaza, the balance of power was destroyed, the rules of the game no longer existed, and the red line even became the starting line. A new power pattern among Israel, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Iran is taking shape, and the advantages and disadvantages of the powers of all countries are more prominent. The new balance of power and new rules of the game have not yet been formed, and the policy choices of the United States, Israel, and Iran will become the most critical uncertainties.
Why it matters
The U.S.-Israeli joint strike on Iran in February 2026, along with the conflict’s spread across multiple countries, has in effect validated the author’s central judgment. The reason this article was selected lies in its analytical framework, centered on the nature of power and the transformation of the regional power configuration, which offers a forward-looking assessment of the Middle East after the Gaza conflict. It reflects a Chinese scholar’s calm and structured reading of regional turmoil: without presupposing an ideological stance, it focuses on each actor’s strengths and weaknesses and on the fragility of the rules of the game, providing a clear analysis for understanding both the current conflict and the transitional period ahead. The article helps readers understand the path and implications of the shift in Middle Eastern power relations: the old balance has broken down, a new order has not yet emerged, and great-power rivalry and regional instability will likely continue for a long time.
Key Points
1. The Pre-Gaza Conflict Pattern: The Strengths and Weaknesses of the Four Power Centers
The Gaza Conflict as a Turning Point in the Power Pattern
After the Gaza conflict broke out in October 2023, the power pattern in the Middle East underwent a rapid and substantial shift. The conflict destroyed the complex and fragile balance of power previously anchored by four major centers: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Israel. In this context, analyzing the nature of power, the characteristics of the pattern, the balancing mechanisms, and the direction of power shifts has become essential to understanding the region's future trajectory.
Israel: Military Power Built on Technology and External Support, Constrained by the Palestinian Issue
Israel has become an independent power center through advanced technology, military strength, and support from the United States and Europe. High technology is the backbone of its economy and military power, supporting its GDP, exports, air superiority, and air defense. Long-term U.S. aid and arms supplies have further strengthened both its hard and soft power. Yet the unresolved Palestinian issue has kept Israel from gaining stable regional support and remains its biggest long-term security weakness.
Iran: Deterrence Built on Proxies, Missiles, and Nuclear Threshold Capability, Undermined by Economic Fragility
Iran’s power rests on three pillars: proxies, missiles, and nuclear deterrence. Through the “Axis of Resistance,” it supports proxy groups to expand its influence at low cost while avoiding direct conflict with regional powers. Roughly 3,000 missiles and its nuclear threshold capability form its core strategic deterrent.
Turkey: Expanding Limited Regional Influence Through Drones and Military Intervention
Turkey expands its regional influence through military intervention, defense industry, and Islamist ideology. Its drones are affordable, effective, and battle-tested, driving arms sales and supporting its role in regional conflicts. But its influence still depends mainly on low-cost drones and lags behind the high-end systems of the United States and Israel. Political Islam once helped Turkey’s rise, but it now deepens tensions with many Middle Eastern states.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States: Oil Wealth and Neutral Diplomacy, with Heavy Reliance on U.S. Security
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have risen as the old Arab powers declined, using oil wealth and neutral diplomacy to become new Arab spokesmen. Saudi Arabia uses its spare oil capacity to influence prices and turns wealth into aid and investment. It has also stayed neutral and acted as a mediator on issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea, steadily boosting its soft power. But its weakness is limited self-defense: it still relies heavily on U.S. security guarantees and faces the risk of being either abandoned or dragged into war.
2. The Pre-Gaza Conflict Balance of Power: Fragile Rules of the Game and Main Contradictions
Turkey’s Marginalization and Saudi Arabia’s Balancing Strategy
After 2014, Turkey withdrew from regional competition, and Iran became Saudi Arabia’s biggest threat. Following the 2020 détente wave, Saudi Arabia shifted away from its military disadvantage and toward diplomacy, seeking to improve ties with Israel and Iran and break free from the constraints of the triangle rivalry.
The fragile deterrence balance between Israel and Iran
Israel and Iran have become the core conflict in the Middle East: Israel relies on military superiority, while Iran counters with proxies, missiles, and nuclear deterrence. The two sides have long fought through proxy wars without full escalation, while mutual missile and nuclear deterrence has kept either from paying the high cost of all-out war. Israel can prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold, but cannot stop it from edging closer; if Iran ever does cross that line, Israel is certain to strike, leaving both sides in a fragile balance.
3. Post-Gaza Conflict Evolution: Old Balance Destroyed, New Pattern Emerging
The Abraham Accords and the Hamas Attack: The Trigger for the Collapse of the Balance of Power
The cracks in the balance began with the 2020 Abraham Accords, when four Arab states normalized relations with Israel, breaking the old Israeli-Palestinian balance of power. Historically, Arab states backed Palestine through the “Three No’s” and the Beirut Declaration, but after the Abraham Accords, six Arab states had recognized Israel, and Saudi–Israeli normalization was nearly within reach. One of Hamas’s direct aims in its attack was to block Saudi–Israeli normalization and derail that process, becoming the first to change the rules of the game.
Iran’s Three Pillars Fail, and Israel Establishes Military Deterrence
The Gaza conflict has dealt a severe blow to Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” sharply weakening its regional position. Regime change in Syria deprived Iran of a key ally, while Hezbollah suffered devastating losses, eroding the axis’s combat power, cohesion, and trust. At the same time, Iran’s deterrence against Israel has largely failed: its proxies have stayed silent, most missile strikes were intercepted, and nuclear capability did not stop Israeli attacks. In the end, Israel used the war to establish military deterrence over the “Axis of Resistance.”
Turkey Emerges as the Second Biggest Beneficiary, While Gulf States’ Financial and Diplomatic Influence Rises
After the power imbalance, Turkey emerged as the second biggest beneficiary, with its influence peaking and Syria becoming a foothold, though it still needs to cooperate with the United States and Gulf states. The Gulf states, meanwhile, have risen faster thanks to their financial and diplomatic power, using postwar reconstruction to reshape the regional order and further strengthen Saudi Arabia’s leadership role. Gulf capital continues to flow into Syria and Gaza, making the Gulf states indispensable partners for the U.S., Israel, and Turkey alike.
Bloc Realignment in the New Order: U.S.–Israel Alliance, Loose Cooperation, and Iran’s Isolation
Israel established military superiority over the “Axis of Resistance” during the war and deepened ties with Gulf states through technology cooperation. Turkey, using Syria as a foothold, managed its relations with the United States, Israel, and the Gulf states, becoming for the first time a Middle Eastern power with broad regional influence. As a result, the Middle East has taken shape as a three-part structure: a U.S.–Israel alliance, loose U.S.–Gulf–Turkey cooperation, and Iran standing alone, while the United States acts as a wavering middleman.
4. Strategic Reconfiguration: Behavioral Logic Under the New Rules
Israel: From “Containment” to “Large-Scale Retaliation”
Israel’s strategy has shifted from containment to large-scale retaliation, and from preserving the status quo to actively changing it, showing a clear military expansionist tilt. Its ongoing strikes on Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria may now be becoming the new normal.
Turkey: A Key Supporting Role
Turkey plays a key supporting role in the new Middle East order: it preserves its influence without overreaching. It accepts the framework led by the United States and the Gulf states, seizing the strategic vacuum left by Iran and guarding against Israel’s excessive expansion. Turkey backs the Gulf states’ policy of regional stability. Meanwhile, under U.S. mediation, Turkey and Israel maintain a delicate balance, and Turkey–Iran ties remain a manageable strategic rivalry.
Saudi Arabia: Avoiding Risk by Distancing Itself from Israel
After the Gaza conflict, Saudi Arabia’s security vulnerability became more apparent, and its threat perception shifted from Iran to Israel. Under domestic public pressure, Saudi Arabia raised the price of normalization with Israel and instead chose to distance itself from Israel, keep the United States close, and engage Iran.
Iran: Extreme Restraint and Passive Retreat in a Strategic Vacuum
Iran has responded to its setbacks with extreme restraint, focusing first on rebuilding its air defenses, because only by defending its homeland can it restore its proxy network and advance its nuclear program. Meanwhile, the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all moving to fill the strategic vacuum left by Iran, but Iran has not yet mounted a forceful counteroffensive. In the end, no side has achieved a total victory or suffered a total defeat, and a new round of rivalry will unfold under a new balance of power.
5. Future Outlook: Critical Uncertainties Shaping the New Rules of the Game
Israel: Military Dominance Secured, Policy Direction at a Three-Way Crossroads
With the initiative in its hands, Israel has three possible paths: first, continue to expand the war and escalate on the Gaza, Lebanon, or Iran fronts; second, preserve a state of “neither war nor peace” while maintaining pressure through small-scale military actions; third, convert military superiority into political gains by using Trump’s “20-point plan” to advance a two-state solution, broaden the Abraham Accords, and pursue “land for peace” in order to break out of isolation.
Iran’s Three Paths: Concessionary Negotiation, Rebuilding Deterrence, or Waiting for the Right Moment
Iran is in a weak position and has only a few policy options: first, negotiate with the United States and make concessions, but the terms are too harsh and hard to accept domestically; second, rebuild the Axis of Resistance and its missile and nuclear deterrence, but the practical basis has been weakened, and this could easily provoke Israeli strikes; third, wait for opponents to make mistakes and use a crisis to expand its influence again. Overall, Iran is weak but still influential.
The United States: Deeply Involved, Politically Unstable, and the Biggest Uncertainty
The United States remains the most influential power, but its Middle East policy is inconsistent. It is deeply involved in regional affairs and can restrain Israel, lift sanctions on Iran, and mediate between Turkey and Israel, but it can also allow war to continue or stand aside. Most likely, it will continue to try different approaches.
Current Situation: The U.S. and Israel Launch a Large-Scale Attack on Iran, and Iran Retaliates
On February 28, 2026, a joint U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran triggered Iranian retaliation, spreading the conflict across multiple countries, raising the risk of all-out war, and shaking the regional balance of power.
Conclusion
The Middle East is in a long period of adjustment and transition. Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran each have strengths and weaknesses, and none has achieved a complete victory or defeat. The new regional order will depend on the policy choices of the United States, Israel, and Iran. Looking ahead, the region is more likely to see “perpetual vigilance and war” than lasting stability.
About the Author
NIU Xinchun牛新春: Academic Vice President of Ningxia University, Executive Dean of the China-Arab States Research Institute, and Director of the Middle East Studies Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
About the Publication
The Chinese version of this article was published in Contemporary International Relations. （《现代国际关系》）First established in 1981, the Contemporary International Relations (a monthly journal) is a central-level, comprehensive academic monthly publication in the field of international studies, sponsored by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. Adhering to its mission of providing high-quality services to readers across the party, government, military, academic, and business sectors to deeply understand and perceive the world, the journal strives to fully exhibit the latest and finest research achievements of experts and scholars on major international strategic issues, the global landscape, international relations theory, international economy, major hot spots, as well as vital developmental shifts in the politics, diplomacy, economy, technology, society, and military affairs of various regions and nations.
