HUANG Zhong and SONG Xiaoli on Multi-alignment Diplomacy of Key Middle Countries
While there is a bright future for multi-alignment diplomacy among key middle countries, it will be an arduous road that requires more patience and efforts.
Welcome to the 11th edition of our weekly newsletter! In my latest commentary for Global Times, I examine the current state of China-U.S. relations and highlight the need for a more balanced approach in U.S. policy toward China. With recent years dominated by intense competition, it's become clear that strategies rooted in rivalry have not yielded the intended outcomes, instead straining bilateral ties and impacting global stability. This piece explores the critical areas—economic cooperation, technological collaboration, and joint responses to global challenges—where both nations can benefit from recalibrating their approach to foster a more constructive and sustainable relationship.
ChinAffairs+ is a weekly newsletter that shares Chinese academic articles focused on topics such as China’s foreign policy, China-U.S. relations, China-European relations, and more. This newsletter was co-founded by me and my research assistant, ZHANG Xueyu. I am SUN Chenghao, a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, and currently a visiting scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School in the United States.
Through carefully selected Chinese academic articles, we aim to provide you with key insights into the issues that China's academic and strategic communities are focused on. We will highlight why each article matters and the most important takeaways. Questions or criticisms may be addressed to sunchenghao@tsinghua.edu.cn
Today, we have selected an article written by HUANG Zhong and SONG Xiaoli, which focuses on the multi-alignment diplomacy of key middle countries.
Summary
Key middle countries (关键中间国家 guān jiàn zhōng jiān guó jiā) are emerging middle powers (新兴中等强国 xīn xīng zhōng děng qiáng guó) which possess significant economic scale, substantial development potential, relatively robust international political influence, and they desire to play a leading role on specific international issues. In the midst of accelerating changes unseen in a century and escalating competitions among major countries, key middle countries are actively and flexibly engaging in multi-alignment diplomacy (多边联合外交 duō biān lián hé wài jiāo）.
Although key middle countries have strengthened military ties with the United States, they generally refuse to join the military bloc of the United States to contain China and Russia. Their economic relations with the United States have improved. At the same time, they have not fundamentally changed the pace of economic cooperation with China and Russia. They enjoy closer strategic ties with the United States, and they have made even greater progress in strategic cooperation with China and Russia to lead the common development of the Global South.
The decisive reasons why key middle countries implement multi-alignment diplomacy are their disappointment to the United States and the Western countries, their desire for cooperation with China and Russia and their confidence in the multi-polarization (多极化 duō jí huà) of the international order. The multi-alignment diplomacy of key middle countries has led to a rise of the new non-alignment movement in the Global South, providing China and Russia ample room to maneuver in the face of the strategic containment of the United States. The intensity and destructive degree of competitions among major countries have also been greatly weakened, making mult-polarization easier to realize. While there is a bright future for multi-alignment diplomacy among key middle countries, it will be an arduous road that requires more patience and efforts.
Why It Matters
After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India still insisted on buying Russian oil during the conflict. At the Munich Security Conference in Germany, India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar responded to the matter, showing that they knew enough to keep multiple options open. In fact, in the modern era, such attitudes are also found in many countries that are becoming more powerful.
Under the background of international order transition, many countries have gradually formed their own multilateral diplomatic mode. Although these countries are not economically comparable to developed countries, they have an influence that cannot be ignored in today’s international arena. They not only actively appear in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and other important international mechanisms, but also play a prominent role. Moreover, these countries also hold many diplomatic initiatives and treasure resources, and their international status is gradually improving in the context of intensifying geopolitical competition. Therefore, the attitude of these countries towards international order transition is particularly important.
This article not only explains why these countries have made the choice of multilateral and joint diplomacy in this turbulent context but also points out that in the coming period, these countries will play an important role in international affairs and can shoulder the responsibility of leading the world to multipolarity. Finally, it also reflects China’s aspirations and best wishes for these pivotal middle countries to lead the Global South—and the world—toward greater development.
Key Points
The world has witnessed accelarating changes unseen in a century. The intensified great power competition and strained relations among major countries lead to the uncentainty during this turbulent period of transition. In this context, key middle countries seek a multi-alignment diplomatic approach.
The Inherent Charateristics of Key Middle Countries: Development Potential, International Impacts and Leadership willingness
“Key middle countries”, also regarded as key global swing states, rose in the post Cold War era. They has great impact on geopolitics and great power competition and show common inherent features.
Development Potential: Although key middle countries cannot match developed nations in economic strength, they possess significant economic scale and substantial growth potential. On the one hand, these countries hold a very important position in the restructuring of global industrial and supply chain. On the other hand, some countries have become focal point for major powers due to their unique energy and resource endowments.
Regional and International Impacts: When key middle countries engage in strategic competition with Western powers, they inevitably face the pressure of ideological bias from the latter. However, their influence in international politics should not be underestimated. In addition to the political impact generated by their economic spillovers, they possess unique advantages, including large populations, the inherent advantages of regional affairs, and the influence of the international agenda setting.
Willingness to be the leader: The key middle countries are not only able but willing, to play a leadership role on specific international issues. The desire of these countries to pursue strategic autonomy and greater political power in the international community is proving increasingly strong.
Multi-alignment Diplomacy of the Key Middle Countries: Flexible, independent and cooperative
With the changes unseen in a century, human society faces unprecedented challenges caused by the great-power zero-sum competition. In this process, middle powers are key targets that the United States is striving to win over. But the newly emerging key middle countries refuse to take sides while actively and flexibly engage in complex and balanced multi-alignment diplomacy, trying to shape international and regional order, and become key factors in international configuration.
Advocating conflict resolution instead of forming exclusive alliance: Some of the key middle countries have aligned with Western nations’ objectives as an opportunity to enhance their own defense capabilities, though not with the intention of containing China or Russia. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while these countries generally opposed the conflict, they refrained from providing military aid to Ukraine. Instead, some actively sought to promote a ceasefire through mediation and other diplomatic efforts.
Cooperate with US without alienating China and Russia: Despite the United States’ efforts to curb China-Russia economic cooperation through “long-arm jurisdiction” (长臂管辖 cháng bì guǎn xiá), it has not succeeded in altering the independent economic decisions of key middle countries regarding exchanges with China and Russia. Nor has it fundamentally slowed the pace of economic cooperation between these countries and China, which they view as a valuable opportunity for mutual growth.
Take the global South as an important support: Moreover, despite strengthening strategic ties with the United States, these countries are advancing strategic cooperation with China and Russia and leading initiatives with Global South nations for collective development. Significantly, they play a pivotal role in various international cooperation mechanisms, leveraging multilateral platforms with greater confidence to advocate for the interests of Global South countries and to present their unique perspectives on a range of global issues.
The Reasons why Key Middle Countries Develop Multi-alignment Diplomacy
The rise of emerging market countries has shifted the structure of the international system, creating a demand for changes in the existing international order. In this context, key middle countries are inherently motivated to pursue a multi-alignment diplomacy approach.
Not accept the United States-led world hegemony: Key middle countries generally do not accept U.S.-led global hegemony, as they question the legitimacy of U.S. leadership in great power competition. Domestic issues and intensified political divides within the U.S. have eroded external confidence in its trajectory, while these middle countries often hold ideological differences with the U.S. and view its rhetoric and actions with skepticism. Consequently, when the U.S. urges these nations to support the liberal world order, they interpret it as an attempt to bolster its hard power against China and Russia, and thus show limited interest in cooperating.
Risk vulnerability in China-US strategic competition: Key middle countries are both unwilling and unable to bear the costs associated with aligning solely with the United States in the realm of great power competition. Broadly speaking, these countries sustain close economic ties with the U.S., China, and Russia, though the dynamics differ among them. Today, the economic influence of China and Russia on these middle powers rivals—if not exceeds—that of the U.S.-led Western world. Consequently, the strong cooperative relationships between these countries and China have become firmly established and are not easily subject to change.
Trend of Global Multipolarization: The global shift toward multipolarity has empowered middle powers to adopt multi-alignment diplomacy. Amid unprecedented changes, these key middle countries are not only developing within this wave of multipolarity but are also emerging as influential forces propelling it forward.
The Impact of Key Middle Countries’ Multi-Alignment Diplomacy
The multi-alignment diplomacy of key middle countries has greatly challenged the traditional, great-power-centered view of international order, becoming an important variable in shaping the trajectory of the changes unseen in a century.
Giving China and Russia strategic space to maneuver: The multi-alignment diplomacy of key middle countries has expanded maneuvering space for China and Russia amid U.S. strategic containment efforts, effectively mitigating the intensity and potential destructiveness of great power competition. Furthermore, measuring international polarization solely by economic and military power fails to capture the complexity of today’s global politics. As political influence grows as an essential metric, the contours of a truly multipolar world will become increasingly distinct.
Uniting the Global South, while addressing potential challenges: Moving forward, key middle countries hold an opportunity to unite the Global South in taking greater responsibility on global issues. However, the path to a fully realized multipolar world remains complex and challenging. First, the United States continues to exert substantial influence over the Global South; second, some key middle countries face internal vulnerabilities that hinder sustainable development; third, these nations must work towards bridging internal differences and enhancing shared interests within their group.
Conclusion
Key middle countries, with substantial economic scale, development potential, and international political influence, are increasingly seeking leadership on select global issues. Amid the unprecedented changes and power shifts in the international system, these countries are pursuing a flexible, multi-alignment diplomatic approach. While they have strengthened military ties with the United States, they resist joining its military bloc against China and Russia, maintaining significant economic and strategic cooperation with both nations. This multi-alignment stance reflects a dissatisfaction with the U.S. and the West, as well as a belief in the necessity of a multipolar world order. As such, this diplomatic strategy has catalyzed a new non-alignment movement within the Global South, granting China and Russia greater maneuverability in the face of U.S. strategic containment. The resulting effect has been a de-escalation of great power competition and a strengthening of global multipolarity. However, while the multi-alignment diplomacy of key middle countries holds significant promise, its trajectory remains complex and will require continued patience and effort to navigate the challenges that lie ahead.
About the Author
HUANG Zhong 黄忠: He is a researcher at the Institute of Hermeneutics and deputy director of the Academy of International and Regional Studies at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, specializing in international security and strategy and cultural exchanges.
SONG Xiaoli 宋晓丽: She is a lecturer at the Center for National and Regional Studies of Hebei Normal University, focusing on national foreign policy and strategy, and Latin American diplomacy.
About the Publication
This article was published by Contemporary International Relations （《现代国际关系》） is a comprehensive academic monthly journal on international studies sponsored by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. It has long been listed as the source journal of the Chinese Social Science Citation Index (CSSCI), the Chinese Core journal (International politics) and the core journal of the Evaluation of Chinese Humanities and Social Science Journals (AMI). The CICIR mainly publishes the latest research results of experts and scholars on international strategic issues, international relations theory, world politics, diplomacy, economy, military and major hot issues. The main columns include international politics and security, world economy, relations between major powers, regional and country studies, foreign publications, academic debates, conference information, etc.
