Evolution and New Developments in China-EU Relations in the Context of Multipolarization by YANG Na

The recent resumption of the China-EU Summit and renewed engagement across various sectors underscore that the bilateral relationship is once again entering a phase of opportunities and challenges.

Welcome to the 43rd edition of our weekly newsletter! I’m SUN Chenghao, a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, Council Member of The Chinese Association of American Studies, a visiting scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School (fall 2024) and Munich Young Leader 2025.

ChinAffairsplus is a newsletter that shares articles by Chinese academics on topics such as China’s foreign policy, China-US relations, China-Europe relations, and more. This newsletter was co-founded by my research assistant, ZHANG Xueyu, and me.

Through carefully selected Chinese academic articles, we aim to provide you with key insights into the issues that China’s academic and strategic communities are focused on. We will highlight why each article matters and the most important takeaways. Questions and feedback can be addressed to sch0625@gmail.com

Today, we have selected an article written by Yang Na on China-Europe Relations, which focuses on Evolution and New Developments in China-EU Relations in the Context of Multipolarization.

Edited by ChinAffairs+.

Summary

In 2025, China and the European Union (EU) will mark the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Against the backdrop of profound transformations in the international system, China-EU relations have undergone continuous adaptation and recalibration.

Since the end of the Cold War, the international landscape has become increasingly multipolar—an enduring feature and prevailing trend in global politics. As two prominent actors in this evolving multipolar order, China and the EU have experienced a dynamic bilateral trajectory characterized by both deepening cooperation and intensifying competition. The recent resumption of the China-EU Summit and renewed engagement across various sectors underscore that the bilateral relationship is once again entering a phase of both new opportunities and emerging challenges.

Historically, the coexistence of cooperation and competition has constituted the foundational pattern of China-EU interactions. Moreover, bilateral engagement varies considerably across issue areas—ranging from regional to global—and increasingly intersects with external influences, particularly the disruptive role of the United States. This multidimensional character highlights the complex and evolving nature of the relationship.

Looking ahead, drawing on historical experience and present-day dynamics, the future of China-EU relations will depend on a rational, autonomous approach to managing both longstanding and emerging issues. Strengthening pragmatic cooperation to promote shared interests, and fostering comprehensive dialogue both within and beyond the EU framework, will be essential in shaping a more stable and constructive bilateral partnership.

Why It Matters

The trajectory of China-EU relations has long reflected a dual pattern of cooperation and competition. From their initial diplomatic engagement in 1975 to the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2003, bilateral ties have deepened across economic, political, and cultural domains.

However, the relationship has never been linear—periods of alignment have been frequently interrupted by strategic divergences and normative frictions. The post-Cold War trend toward multipolarity has further complicated bilateral dynamics, placing China and the EU in a shifting international order marked by power redistribution and rising uncertainty.

In today’s context—one characterized by the China-US rivalry, global governance challenges, and mounting transnational threats such as climate change and economic instability—China-EU cooperation has renewed relevance. Both sides wield significant global influence and share overlapping interests in maintaining stability, promoting sustainable development, and addressing global risks. Studying how cooperation can be advanced amid structural tensions and differences in values is critical to preventing strategic misperceptions and fostering constructive engagement. A nuanced understanding of the pathways to deeper collaboration will not only inform future policy but also contribute to a more balanced and resilient international order. This article presents the in-depth perspectives of Chinese scholars on this vital topic.

Key Points

1. The Trajectory of China-EU Relations Amid Global Multipolarity

Since the end of the Cold War, increasing multipolarity has underscored the strategic importance of China-EU relations. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership tightened ties through high-level exchanges and expanded economic cooperation and new institutional mechanisms. However, in recent years, competition and divergences have posed growing challenges.

• The Phase of Deepening Cooperation: the End of the Cold War to 2019

Following the end of the Cold War and amid accelerating globalization and multipolarity, China-EU relations entered a period of steady advancement. In 1998, the two sides established a constructive partnership and initiated an annual leaders’ summit. Economic interdependence also deepened, with both becoming each other’s third-largest trading partner by the end of the 1990s.

Entering the 21st century, China and the EU upgraded their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2003, accompanied by the release of China’s first EU policy paper. High-level political exchanges increased significantly, and mutual trust was strengthened through frequent visits and multilateral engagements, such as the 2008 Beijing Olympics and ASEM summits. Policy documents in 2013 and 2014 reaffirmed the intention to deepen cooperation despite changing global contexts.

Economically, the EU became China’s top trading partner in 2004 and remained so until 2019. Mechanisms like the China-EU High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue and the 2021 Agreement on Geographical Indications reflected efforts to manage friction and expand cooperation. In parallel, human-centred and global governance cooperation also progressed, with joint declarations on education, arms control, and climate change.

Overall, this period laid the institutional and political foundations for long-term China-EU collaboration across multiple domains.

• The Phase of Intensifying Competition: 2019 Onwards

Since 2019, China-EU relations have entered a new phase, marked by increased competition. Despite this, high-level exchanges have continued and during the pandemic, China and the EU supported each other. Trade had reached new heights by 2022, with the China-EU Geographical Indications Agreement as a key milestone. However, compared to previous stages, competition has noticeably escalated.

The first key factor contributing to this shift is the EU’s changing strategic orientation. The 2016 "Global Strategy for the EU’s Foreign and Security Policy" emphasized "strategic autonomy," a position reinforced by Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership of the EU from 2019 onwards. Under this strategy, the EU began redefining its relations with external powers, including China, identifying it as a partner in areas like climate change, as an economic competitor, and as a systemic rival. This geopolitical stance has led to increased friction, particularly on issues such as human rights and the environment. Furthermore, new challenges have emerged during this period, exacerbated by US-China strategic competition and regional geopolitical tensions. The EU’s growing focus on supply chain security, especially in critical resources, has led to policies like the European Critical Raw Materials Act. This has increased trade frictions with China, with China and EU’s trading relationship seen as imbalanced. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has deepened mutual suspicions, with differing views on how to address the crisis and the EU’s role in mediation.

• Recent Developments and Uncertainties in China-EU Relations

Since late 2022, China-EU relations have seen renewed engagement. High-level diplomatic visits have increased, fostering political trust. German Chancellor Scholz, European Council President Michel, and European Commission President Von der Leyen have visited China, while President Xi has emphasized strategic communication and mutual trust. In 2025, Von der Leyen reiterated the EU's commitment to constructive engagement and win-win cooperation. Frequent exchanges have led to consensus on trade and people-to-people ties. Meanwhile, “de-risking” has emerged as the EU’s new China policy orientation.

While rejecting decoupling, the EU aims to reduce overdependence on China in key sectors. Initiatives like the European Critical Raw Materials Act and the 2024 Economic Security Package reflect growing concern over economic resilience and strategic autonomy. Though more moderate than decoupling, de-risking introduces uncertainty into bilateral economic ties. Lastly, institution-level changes in the EU have added complexity to the relationship. The European Parliament’s increasingly hawkish stance, especially on Taiwan-related issues, highlights rising ideological tensions. Von der Leyen’s reappointment has consolidated her influence, while Germany’s new coalition under Chancellor Merz signals a pragmatic yet cautious China policy. Shifting power dynamics within the EU are likely to shape its external strategy and China policy in the years ahead.

2. Main Features of the Development of China-EU Relations

• Differences in Perceptions of Multipolarity as a Key Driver of China-EU Relations

Since the end of the Cold War, especially in the 21st century, multipolarity has become a defining trend in global politics. Both China and the EU have increased their influence within this evolving order, shaping foreign policy based on differing perceptions of multipolarity. While China views multipolarity as a strategic opportunity for balanced global development, the EU emphasizes “strategic autonomy” to hedge against rising uncertainties. These perceptual differences have led to persistent complexity in bilateral ties, where cooperation in trade and global governance coexists with systemic rivalry in political and normative domains. The US remains a constant external variable, further shaping EU policy and contributing to tensions. Despite divergences, economic interdependence, shared interests in global challenges, and China’s call for an independent EU policy ensure that China-EU relations remain dynamic, though marked by competition and cautious engagement.

• The Coexistence of Competition and Cooperation as the Fundamental Nature of China-EU Relations

As two globally influential powers, China and the EU maintain a complex relationship marked by both cooperation and competition. Despite structural differences in culture, politics, and development, both sides acknowledge that mutual interests outweigh divergences. Since the early 2000s, the EU has simultaneously emphasized economic interdependence and competitive pressures, especially in trade. Recent EU documents continue to define China as both a partner and a rival. While tensions persist, particularly under the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, both parties recognize the value of managing differences constructively. China remains committed to dialogue, cooperation, and respecting core concerns to ensure stable and forward-looking relations.

• Issue-Based Variations in the Development of China-EU Relations

The trajectory of China-EU relations cannot be reduced to a simple binary of cooperation or competition, as it spans multiple issue areas shaped by asymmetries in power, interests, and values. In the economic domain, sustained institutional dialogues—such as the High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue, and the China-EU Geographical Indications Agreement—have fostered deep interdependence, with bilateral trade volumes exceeding €2 billion daily in 2024.

However, recent developments—including the suspension of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment and trade frictions over subsidies and market access—underscore emerging fault lines. Normative divergence, particularly on human rights, has further complicated bilateral dynamics. The EU’s external strategy increasingly integrates human rights discourse as a tool of normative power, while China emphasizes sovereignty and non-interference, resulting in recurrent tensions. Moreover, new domains such as the green transition, digital governance, and critical technology have introduced layered interactions marked by both strategic complementarity and intensified rivalry. This sectoral differentiation will continue to define China-EU relations.

• Regional and Global Issues as Emerging Variables in China-EU Relations

In the evolution of China-EU relations, regional and global issues have become increasingly influential alongside traditional areas such as politics, trade, and culture. Both actors value multilateralism and global governance, often cooperating on climate change, counterterrorism, and arms control. China advocates a reform of global governance based on mutual consultation, while the EU promotes normative diplomacy and rule-based multilateralism. In Africa, China and the EU both pursue strategic engagement, resulting in both cooperation (e.g., infrastructure, green energy) and competition—particularly between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the EU’s Global Gateway. In the Indo-Pacific, the EU has launched its own strategy, aiming to expand its influence while balancing relations with partners like the US and Japan. Though less confrontational than the US, the EU’s growing involvement in this region may serve as both a site for cooperation with China and a potential source of tension, challenging future bilateral coordination.

• The Supranational Nature of the EU as a Source of Uncertainty in China-EU Relations

Unlike sovereign states, the EU is a supranational entity with institutions—such as the Council, Commission, and Parliament—that often hold divergent views on China, resulting in an inconsistent and sometimes contradictory China policy. For instance, after the 2023 China-EU Summit, the European Parliament passed a resolution criticizing China on sensitive issues, sparking Chinese opposition. The Parliament has increasingly influenced China policy by blocking the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment and involving itself in China’s Taiwan and Hong Kong-related matters. Additionally, differences among member states affect bilateral ties. While Central and Eastern European countries have shown growing skepticism, stable ties with France and Germany remain a key anchor for China-EU relations.

• The Enduring Influence of the United States on China-EU Relations

The United States and the EU share overlapping foreign policy goals, especially toward China. Historically, the EU has aligned with US strategic approaches, engaging China through both cooperation and competition in ideology, trade, and rules-based order. The US has often leveraged its transatlantic influence to shape EU-China policy. While Trump's first term strained US-EU ties, Biden emphasized renewed coordination, including joint mechanisms such as the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) aimed at countering China’s “non-market practices.” However, Trump's re-election has reintroduced economic pressure, urging the EU to buy more US energy or face tariffs—prompting EU recalibration of its China policy. As for security, the Ukraine crisis tested EU “strategic autonomy,” reinforcing reliance on NATO and US military presence. Despite growing defense ambitions, Europe remains dependent on US security guarantees. The 2023 NATO-EU joint declaration explicitly cited both Russia and China as key challenges. Facing rising uncertainties, the EU seeks to rebalance its relations globally, particularly with China, while managing transatlantic dependencies.

3. Exploring Future Pathways for China–EU Relations

China and the EU, as key drivers of global multipolarity, shape their own development and impact Eurasian peace and global issues; analysing their evolving relationship offers insights for overcoming challenges and achieving long-term growth.

• Promoting a Rational EU Perception of China

The development of China-EU relations has been marked by a mix of rational and irrational voices, with the latter increasingly influencing policy, especially within the EU. Traditionally, the EU has adopted a pragmatic approach, cooperating with China on trade, investment, energy, public health, and climate change, while viewing China as a competitor in ideological, governance, and security matters. As the EU increasingly emphasizes China’s role as an economic and technological competitor and a systemic rival, its perception has grown more negative, leading to more competitive policies that undermine cooperation.

To improve relations, a more rational and balanced EU understanding of China is needed. First, trade imbalances and resource dependencies reflect the inevitable outcomes of globalization and should not be exaggerated. The successful China-EU Geographical Indications Agreement shows that concerns can be addressed through cooperation. Competition in core technologies should remain controlled and not overly securitized. Second, the EU should recognize that China’s foreign policy aims to safeguard sovereignty without threatening EU interests. EU sanctions on China related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict lack legal basis and risk complicating relations. Third, ideological and governance differences require rational engagement. EU criticisms of the human rights situation in China often reveal double standards. Both sides should avoid viewing each other as adversaries solely due to differences and maintain stable, constructive dialogue.

• Balancing the China-US-EU Trilateral Relationship through Strategic Autonomy

The United States has been a key factor influencing China-EU relations. Barry Buzan has noted that major powers prioritize their relations with the US, and this shaped China-EU ties during and after the Cold War normalization period. Post-Cold War, the EU has closely followed the US, using value-based diplomacy to pressure China. Under Biden, US efforts to unite Europe against China have intensified. To minimize this negative impact, the EU pursues “strategic autonomy” to balance relations with both China and the US. Despite challenges, China supports this goal. Transatlantic tensions, such as disputes over NATO defense spending and trade policies like the Inflation Reduction Act, reveal asymmetries and trust issues. The EU’s strategic autonomy aims to enable independent decisions amid US-China rivalry. Growing US-EU disagreements, especially over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may push the EU to rethink its US alignment and strengthen cooperation with China as part of its strategy of balancing trilateral relations and achieving autonomy.

• Engaging in a Targeted Manner Based on the EU’s Supranational Characteristics

Internal divisions within the EU have made its China policy increasingly complex. While major powers like France and Germany maintain generally stable ties with China, they also see it as a competitor. Germany’s 2023 National Security Strategy labels China a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival,” and Chancellor Scholz echoed this “de-risking” approach. France cooperates with China in Africa but also views it as a rival for influence. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s withdrawal from China–CEEC cooperation strained relations, though trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe remains robust.

At the institutional level, despite recent high-level visits to China, the EU's threefold stance on China—partner, competitor, and rival—has not fundamentally changed. China should engage both EU institutions and member states with targeted approaches: deepening cooperation with key countries in trade, tech, and climate governance, while also promoting trust and dialogue with Central and Eastern European nations. Sustained communication in areas like human rights and climate change remains essential to shaping a more rational and comprehensive EU understanding of China.

• Advancing China-EU Cooperation through Shared and Complementary Interests

Recent fluctuations in China–EU relations stem largely from the EU’s growing focus on perceived risks in the relationship, often treating disagreements as threats to its security and interests. To foster a more stable future, both sides must emphasize their shared and complementary interests, underlining that cooperation need not compromise EU security or autonomy. Economic ties, long the “ballast” of the relationship, have been undermined by protectionist tendencies and politicization of trade issues. Revitalizing trade cooperation—including making progress on the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment—can help restore stability.

Emerging sectors such as digital technology, the green transition, and space and ocean governance offer new opportunities for cooperation. Notably, joint efforts in space exploration and marine data sharing have yielded tangible results. In 2024, the ESA even considered using China’s hypersonic wind tunnel—a sign of growing trust in advanced tech fields. Moreover, both sides advocate multilateralism and global rule-setting, creating space for strategic coordination. With complementary strengths in digital markets, green tech, and sustainable development, China and the EU should deepen practical engagement and expand consensus on regulatory, environmental, and technological fronts to enhance global governance and bilateral ties.

Conclusion

In recent years, China–EU relations have deepened, bringing expanded cooperation and broadened shared interests, yet also revealing growing differences on key issues. Since the early 2000s, the relationship has shifted from deepening cooperation to intensifying competition, influenced by global power rivalries, regional conflicts, and the evolving EU integration process. Areas of engagement have broadened, now spanning the Indo-Pacific, Africa, climate change, and public health. However, the US remains a key external influence, often complicating the China–EU dynamic.

To ensure the long-term positive development of the relationship, both sides must improve multilevel communication and move beyond ideological biases. The EU should adopt a more pragmatic and unified China policy, reduce external interference, and focus on mutual benefit. Ursula von der Leyen’s 2025 Davos speech signaled such a shift, calling for constructive engagement. Meanwhile, Trump's return, bringing with it defense cuts and tariff threats, pressures the EU toward greater strategic autonomy. As Europe seeks economic revitalization, a renewed push for a China–EU investment agreement offers a timely opportunity. In a multipolar world full of uncertainty, China remains a stabilizing force and views Europe as a vital global partner.

About the Author

YANG Na 杨娜：a professor at the Department of International Relations at the Zhou Enlai School of Government Management at Nankai University. Her main research areas include global governance, European governance, and China-EU relations.

About the Publication

The Chinese version of the article was published by Deutschland-Studien《德国研究》, founded in 1986 and published bimonthly. It is compiled by Tongji University and edited by the Institute for German and EU Studies at Tongji University. The journal is dedicated to the academic exploration of Germany and related studies on the European Union, consistently presenting the latest achievement in research in the field. It enjoys a strong reputation within the international academic community—particularly in German studies—and is widely recognized by senior policymakers, scholars, experts, and business professionals. The journal is currently included in the CSSCI (Chinese Social Sciences Citation Index) 2019–2020 source journal list.