Chinese Scholars on Chinese Modernization: Why does China still Have Emerging Strategic Opportunities?
From historical, spatial and relational angles
Welcome to the second edition of our weekly newsletter! ChinAffairs+ is a weekly newsletter that shares Chinese academic articles focused on topics such as China’s foreign policy, China-U.S. relations, China-European relations, and more. This newsletter was co-founded by me and my research assistant, ZHANG Xueyu. I am SUN Chenghao, a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, and currently a visiting scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School in the United States.
Through carefully selected Chinese academic articles, we aim to provide you with key insights into the issues that China's academic and strategic communities are focused on. We will highlight why each article matters and the most important takeaways. Questions or criticisms may be addressed to sunchenghao@tsinghua.edu.cn
Summary
The article highlights some international narratives that downplay China’s development prospects, often forecasting the decline of its economy. These views generally argue that Chinese modernization（中国式现代化） path is fraught with growing strategic risks and shrinking opportunities. However, the authors contend that these opinions stem from a lack of accurate understanding of global trends and China’s strengths, which leads to a failure to see the new strategic opportunities emerging from China's modernization.
The article argues that, historically, the transformation of the international system offers two key strategic opportunities（战略机遇）. First, the global order is shifting from colonial and hegemonic structures towards one that is more just and equitable. Second, China's modernization is in harmony with global trends such as multipolarity, economic globalization, diverse development models, and the democratization of international relations.
In terms of space, advances in technology and industry open up significant opportunities for China to further develop its open economy.
From a relational standpoint, China's vision of a community with a shared future for humanity（人类命运共同体） goes beyond traditional Western international relations theories. It supports the creation of a new model for international relations, encourages reforms and innovations in global governance, and promotes joint efforts to address global challenges. This paves the way for stabilizing major-power relations and strengthening China's global partnerships.
Why It Matters
There has been considerable international attention on the trajectory of China’s economic development for some time. Some scholars argue that China's economy has peaked and will now enter a slower growth phase, with the gap between China and the U.S. widening rather than closing. While these views acknowledge some of the challenges China faces, they fail to fully grasp China’s developmental strengths and the evolving global landscape. As China continues its modernization journey, recognizing these strategic opportunities is vital for policymakers and analysts studying global economic and geopolitical shifts.
This article is important because it offers a counter-narrative to such critiques, emphasizing China’s growing role in global governance and its ability to seize opportunities amid international uncertainties by highlighting China’s contributions from three key perspectives. The article seeks to respond to these narratives from historical, spatial, and relational angles, reevaluating these assessments and exploring China's new strategic opportunities. It also outlines China’s future development and diplomatic trajectory.
The article illustrates that mainstream Chinese scholars remain confident in the country’s economic prospects and believe that this confidence is well-founded.
Key Points
The cognitive limitations of the “talk down on China” （“唱衰中国”）narrative：
From a historical perspective, the “talk down on China” narrative fails to recognize the evolving trends of the international system and does not objectively understand China’s role in shaping the global order.
From a spatial perspective, this narrative often relies on traditional views of great power geopolitics, economics, and military strategies, neglecting the evolution of international security and development and overlooking the emergence of new industries.
From a relational perspective, these views confine state relations to a “zero-sum game” framework, emphasizing ideological divisions in international relations and segmenting countries into opposing camps.
New Strategic opportunities of China:
Historical Strategic Opportunities: The international order has been transitioning from a colonial order and a hegemonic order towards a more just and reasonable new international order. The combination of this transition with China’s evolving position from the periphery to the center of the international system has created strategic opportunities for China’s development. In the process of engaging with the international system, China’s historical initiative in mastering its own destiny and seizing strategic opportunities, as well as its ability to shape the international environment, has continuously improved.
Spatial Strategic Opportunities: The current global landscape is experiencing significant changes in technology and industrial practices, continually offering new strategic opportunities for the advancement of the Chinese economy.
China as an Unsaturated Market: The ongoing drive of major multinational companies to expand their global market presence presents a significant opportunity for China. As an emerging economy with a vast market scale, China stands to benefit greatly from this continued expansion.
China as a Home Market: When facing risk shocks, enterprises often prefer to rely on their home markets. Consequently, the Chinese market increasingly serves as a new "home market" for multinational corporations. The external market's increasing dependence on the Chinese market has further reinforced the trend of integrated development in a regional economic space and industrial system centered around the Chinese domestic market and extending to neighboring markets.
The Geopolitical Opportunities of China: Rail logistics and digital technology have transformed the geographic space of production and trade. Future global trade relations will gradually shift from a ‘point-line’ layout between coastal ports to a ‘line-plane’ layout between other regions and the hinterlands of Eurasia. The industrial agglomeration effects in Central Asia and Central Europe continuing to emerge, where China has priority layouts. Digital technology has further enhanced the convenience of trade and production connections, continuously reducing the uncertainty in supply chain and industrial chain coordination.
Digital and Green Transformations: The global economic shift towards green and digital development will create new market spaces for China. In the future, a global digital market functional coordination center located around China as a hub for data and computing power is expected to gradually form. This will help to progressively break the traditional monopoly of international internet data resources dominated by Western countries, particularly the United States. The transition to a green economy will drive a new balance in supply and demand and shape new market spaces, creating opportunities for China’s technological and industrial development in the green and low-carbon sectors.
Relational Strategic Opportunities:
New Type of International Relations: The current international system is evolving towards greater justice and equality. China is dedicated to advancing the creation of a community with a shared future for humanity and establishing a new type of international relations（新型国际关系）, thereby seizing a crucial strategic opportunity to shape a new paradigm of global order.
The Cooperation of Global South（全球南方）: As China advances its own development, it emphasizes collaboration with other emerging countries and actively develops mechanisms for cooperation among these major emerging powers. This approach creates strategic opportunities for China to counteract the strategic containment efforts imposed by the United States.
China’s Growing Role in Maintaining International Peace and Stability: The global power structure is shifting towards an “East is rising and West is declining”（东升西降）trend, prompting major international powers to rapidly adjust their policies in response to significant changes. In the context of the world entering a new period of turbulence and transformation, China, as a key stakeholder in maintaining the stability of the international system and promoting the evolution of the international order towards fairness and reasonableness, will engage more actively and constructively in resolving international hotspot issues, playing a crucial role as a responsible major power.
Conclusion: As it advances Chinese modernization efforts, China has engaged in extensive and in-depth interactions with the international system. This engagement has markedly enhanced China's ability to influence its external environment. The evolving international system and order have created new strategic opportunities for China's unique path of modernization. By integrating international market dynamics with the transformation of emerging technologies and industries, combined with China’s inherent economic strengths, the country has identified significant strategic opportunities on a broader spatial scale. China has introduced major innovations in international relations paradigms, fostering global partnerships through its practical approach. Its strategic decisions, major power responsibilities, and proactive diplomacy have all contributed to new strategic opportunities for the Chinese modernization journey.
Recent Opinions of CHEN Dongxiao
On September 5, Chen Dongxiao, President of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, delivered a lecture titled "Can China Handle Trump 2.0?" at the RSIS Distinguished Public Lecture hosted by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University.
Professor Chen believes that if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the upcoming election, his second term could bring even greater uncertainty, instability, and unpredictability, potentially causing more disruptive impacts on China-U.S. relations and the global order. He anticipates that Trump's second term will prioritize four key objectives: stimulating U.S. economic growth and promoting the reshoring of manufacturing; reducing America's global responsibilities; intensifying strategic competition with China as a major power; and addressing immigration issues.
As for U.S. China policy, Trump's team regards China as the greatest threat the U.S. faces in the 21st century and asserts that China, rather than the U.S., has initiated comprehensive competition across security, economic, and ideological domains. Furthermore, with the Republican Party likely to control the White House, both houses of Congress, and the Supreme Court, a second-term Trump, unburdened by re-election pressures, is more likely to advance an aggressive China containment policy through a whole-of-government approach. In the technology sector, Trump would intensify decoupling efforts, imposing strict restrictions on capital flows, technology exchanges, and personnel movements with China. In the realm of military security, Trump would promote military development to maintain the U.S.'s absolute military superiority.
Domestically, Chen Dongxiao anticipates that China will continue to enhance its national strength through comprehensive deepening of reforms and continued openness. On the bilateral front, China will strengthen its policy toolbox to mitigate external shocks and maintain direct communication with the U.S. in diplomacy, economics, and military matters, while also advancing people-to-people and cultural exchanges. Given that a return of Trump to the White House would impact the global order, China will also seek to collaborate more with other affected partners at the multilateral level to address these challenges.
About the Author
CHEN Dongxiao 陈东晓: He is the co-author of this article, Senior Research Fellow and President of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). Specializing in the studies of United Nations, China’s foreign policy and China-U.S. relations, Prof. Chen has published extensively on China’s diplomacy, major power relationship, the UN reform, and global governance. In his responsibility as the SIIS President and senior policy adviser to the government, Prof. Chen has chaired numerous research projects commissioned by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, and supervised extensive academic publications supported by the China National Foundation of Social Sciences. With regard to his academic service, Prof. Chen is the editor-in-chief of the Global Review (published in the Chinese language) and the China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies (published in the English language), both being flagship journals on China’s diplomacy hosted by the SIIS and contributed by expertise across China and abroad.
MAO Ruipeng 毛瑞鹏: He is the co-author of this article, Deputy Director of the Center for American Studies, Secretary-General of the Center for Studies on Theories and Practices of Major-country Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). His research focuses on the governance and reform of the United Nations. He gained Doctor Degree (International Relations) from Fudan University in 2009, and BA (International Politics) from Shandong University in 2003. He used to be a Professor at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, and was a Visiting Scholar at Davidson College (NC, United States) in 2013-2014. He is the author of the United States and the Reform of United Nations Security Council, and the Chinese translator of Arms and Influence (by Thomas C. Schelling), and After Anarchy: Legitimacy and Power in the United Nations Security Council (by Ian Hurd).
WANG Yuzhu 王玉柱: He is the co-author of this article, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for World Economy Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). He received his Ph.D degree in economics from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. His research focuses on development theories, institutional reform and the Belt&Road Initiative. His recent publications include:“Evolution Mechanism of Market Order and the Role of Government”,“On Central Bank Monetary Policies from German Mark to Euro”,“The New Phase of Globalization and Shanghai’s New Journey of Reform”.
About Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS) 上海国际问题研究院
SIIS was established in 1960 as a comprehensive research institution, one of the earliest government-affiliated think tanks in China dedicated to international studies. At its founding, Mr. Jin Zhonghua (Ching Chung-Hwa), then Vice Mayor of Shanghai and Vice Chair of the Shanghai People’s Political Consultative Conference, was the inaugural president.
Over the past six decades, SIIS has played a crucial role in conducting strategic research, providing policy recommendations, and contributing to the understanding of international politics, economics, security, and other related fields. It has evolved into an important institution informing and shaping China’s foreign policy and global engagement, and has been accredited as one of the most influential think tanks in China and around the world. More recently, SIIS has further raised its profile by playing a significant role in expanding Shanghai’s global connections and advancing China’s international communications.
As a foreign ministry-accredited policy advisory institution, SIIS actively partners with government agencies and higher education institutions, establishing joint research centers.
About the Publication
This article was published by International Outlook (《国际展望》) in Chinese version. This journal is hosted by Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS) and co-organized by the Shanghai International Studies Association. It is the first bilingual (Chinese and English) International Relations journal in China, with a bi-monthly Chinese edition and a quarterly English edition. This journal aims to provide a new academic platform for international relations research, bringing together the insights of domestic and international experts and scholars. It serves the theoretical development of international relations in China and offers recommendations for China's diplomatic strategies and policies.