China-Europe Relations amid Great Changes by the Project Group of CASS
The basis of China-Europe relations is still built on consensus rather than divergence, presenting opportunities in the face of challenges.
Welcome to the 37th edition of our weekly newsletter! I’m SUN Chenghao, a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, Council Member of The Chinese Association of American Studies and a visiting scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School (fall 2024).
ChinAffairsplus is a newsletter that shares articles by Chinese academics on topics such as China’s foreign policy, China-U.S. relations, China-Europe relations, and more. This newsletter was co-founded by my research assistant, ZHANG Xueyu, and me.
Through carefully selected Chinese academic articles, we aim to provide you with key insights into the issues that China’s academic and strategic communities are focused on. We will highlight why each article matters and the most important takeaways. Questions and feedback can be addressed to sch0625@gmail.com
Today, we have selected an article written by the Project Group on China-Europe Relations at Institute of European Studies, which focuses on the New Adjustments and Developments of China-Europe Relations Amidst the Unprecedented Global Changes.
Summary
Amid “great changes unseen in a century”, China-Europe relations are experiencing notable adjustments and developments. Europe, as a major global force, is faced with growing political fragmentation, a return to economic protectionism in the wake of multiple crises, and a foreign policy increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors.
In recent years, Europe’s perception of China has shifted, and competition with China has increasingly been highlighted, which has posed challenges to bilateral relations. However, the fundamental dynamics of China-Europe relations remain unchanged, with mutual dependence and cooperation in a number of fields. However, the basis of relations is still built on consensus rather than divergence, presenting opportunities in the face of challenges. The year 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of the diplomatic relations between China and the EU. Both sides should reflect on shared experiences in the past five decades and strengthen mutual understanding through dialogue, expanded cooperation, active negotiation and enhanced openness. These efforts are key to stable and enduring relations between China and Europe.
Why It Matters
Amid an era of unprecedented global transformations, Europe has witnessed escalating political polarization and institutional fragmentation. Economic performance has remained sluggish, and its external relations have become increasingly influenced by geopolitical considerations.
In the realm of China-Europe relations, the European Union has encountered significant challenges in adjusting to a more symmetrical partnership, marked by a growing emphasis on geopolitics and normative, value-driven diplomacy. The EU has increasingly foregrounded the competitive dimensions of its economic engagement with China, alongside highlighting ideological divergences. These dynamics have been further exacerbated by exogenous factors, including the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict and the strategic deployment of “smart power” diplomacy by the United States, aimed at drawing the EU closer to its geopolitical orbit. Consequently, skepticism and negative perceptions of China have been amplified within EU institutions and among certain member states.
The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in November 2024 introduces both renewed uncertainty and potential inflection points in the evolving global political economy and in China-Europe relations. In this context, the imperative for constructive engagement, strategic communication, and institutionalized dialogue between China and the EU has become increasingly salient. The trajectory of China-EU strategic cooperation will play a pivotal role in shaping the future international order and in safeguarding global peace, stability, and sustainable prosperity.
Key Points
Europe Amidst a Global Shift
Since 2008, Europe’s economy has suffered from four major crises: the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2011–2012 sovereign debt crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These crises have intertwined with new changes and contradictions across economic, social, and political domains, presenting unprecedented challenges for the EU.
Europe’s Increasing Political Fragmentation
The Strengthening of Political Conservatism in Europe
In recent years, a “rightward shift” in European politics has become increasingly evident, and has become the most prominent feature of the transformation in Europe’s political ideologies and party structures. As a result, internal fragmentation within Europe has deepened, leading to an increasing tendency for nations to focus inward and making European integration more difficult. A fear of an economic downturn and issues related to immigration and refugees have fueled this rise of right-wing populism. The re-election of Donald Trump as president will also undoubtedly boost right-wing populist parties in Europe, particularly strengthening the position of the European Patriots group.
Political Polarization and Fragmentation in Europe
Alongside the rise of right-wing populism, the traditional political parties in European countries have been losing influence, and the once-dominant centrist parties have been weakening. Meanwhile, populist parties on the right of the political spectrum are emerging. The polarization, fragmentation, and instability of political parties seem to be becoming a common trend across the EU and its member states, undermining Europe’s leadership in global affairs: first, the political divide in Europe is being reshaped. Second, the overall stability of European politics is on the decline. Third, the power centers in Europe are becoming increasingly diverse, with the “Franco-German axis” facing difficulties due to insufficient political leadership, thereby creating an opportunity for the European Commission to expand its power. Additionally, with the spillover of geopolitical games, the divide between “New Europe” and “Old Europe” continues to widen.
The Impact of Multiple Crises on Europe’s Economy
The Undermined Foundation of European Integration
The long-term economic downturn starting at the onset of the global financial crisis has undermined the foundation of European integration in at least two ways. First, each crisis has exacerbated economic disparities among EU member states, increasing divisions and conflicts over the economic policies implemented at the EU level. The crisis has thereby reduced the EU’s internal cohesion. Second, the financial and debt crises led to sustained high unemployment across the EU, sparking poverty and social dissatisfaction. Thus, it heightened the conflict between elite groups and the general population. At the same time, populist parties opposing European integration have gained significant traction in many EU countries. The UK’s eventual exit from the EU through a referendum further undermined prospects for enhanced integration.
The Negative Impacts on Europe’s Economic and Social Model
Although there is no unified economic and social model within the EU, the bloc has long sought to shape a relatively consistent model since the launch of the integration process after World War II, aiming to enhance the recognition of integration by member states and citizens. The European model is often characterized as a balanced development approach that takes into account economic vitality, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability. However, since the global financial crisis, the relative stability of this balanced development has been gradually undermined, rendering the future of Europe’s economic and social model uncertain.
The Difficulties Faced by the EU in Implementing New Economic Growth Objectives
In 2010, the EU introduced the Europe 2020 Strategy, outlining three core pillars for future economic growth: smart growth, sustainable growth, and inclusive growth. However, successive crises have severely limited the available public financial resources for member states, while also eroding private investors’ confidence, leading to insufficient investment. High unemployment rates in certain member states have persisted. Owing to factors such as the economic recession, the energy crisis, a shortage of skilled labor, and delayed infrastructure development, at the end of 2024, the EU’s dual green and digital transitions still face significant challenges.
Weakened Global Competitiveness
Even before the global financial crisis, the EU had already been struggling with issues regarding its economic competitiveness. The EU’s Lisbon Strategy, introduced in 2000, was not successfully implemented, especially in its aims to rapidly increase labor productivity. With the weakening of its economic competitiveness, the EU’s position in the global economy has been on a steady decline. The Draghi Report indicated that the EU is at a disadvantage in promoting growth in emerging technologies, and without rapid action in innovation, infrastructure, and technology investment, Europe will gradually lose its global competitiveness.
The Geopoliticization of European Foreign Policy
The Birth of the European Commission
Both Europe and the EU have long depended on economic globalization and free trade for their development. The return of geopolitics is logically and practically contrary to the EU’s founding principles, but it has had to adapt. Thus, it seeks to strike a balance between interdependence and autonomy, responding to geopolitical changes by constructing a geopolitical Europe and a European Defense Union. Upon assuming office as President of the European Commission in 2019, Ursula von der Leyen declared that her Commission would be a geopolitical one, using the European Defense Union project to address the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Intensifies Europe’s Geopolitical Urgency
In response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU as a whole and member states such as France and Germany shifted their approach from the Normandy Format to deep cooperation with the United States. They collectively provided military and economic aid to Ukraine and imposed sanctions to contain Russia. Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, the US and Europe have sought to exert pressure on China through multilateral and bilateral diplomatic efforts, attempting to create a divide between China and Russia.
The Reshaping of Europe’s Security Order
Europe believes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has challenged the European security order established after the Cold War. As sanctions on Russia became politically correct, Europe abandoned its close economic interdependence with Russia, opting instead for more expensive and less time-efficient imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas. Most EU member states lack a long-term framework for European security in relation to the Ukraine issue, and they insist on continuing to aid Ukraine. With Trump’s return to the White House, Europe now faces the existential question of whether it can independently sustain Ukraine’s financial and military expenditures should the U.S. halt its aid.
China-Europe Relations: Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges Facing China-Europe Relations
The Accelerated Adjustment of Europe’s Perception of China
At instances when various European ideologies collide, China has become a focal point of public debate among both elites and the general public. Notably, China-Europe economic and diplomatic relations, once pragmatic, have increasingly been politicized and even securitized due to the influence of political debates within Europe. The EU’s perception of China now reflects a mix of diverse understandings, with policies tending towards greater unity among EU states. These policies simultaneously incorporate pragmatic cooperation and common values, while balancing autonomy and alignment with U.S. interests.
First, Europe’s perceptions of China remain varied, with the EU’s stance increasingly characterized by a triple positioning of China as competitor, adversary, and partner. Second, the priorities of the EU and its member states on foreign and domestic policies vary, leading to differing attitudes towards China-EU relations. Third, there is growing divergence between EU-level and member-state policies, creating a dynamic of negotiation and compromise between the European Commission, the European Parliament, and individual member states. Fourth, as the overall strategic balance shifts, Europe’s view of China has become increasingly shaped by anxiety over its economic competitiveness, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the strategic rivalry between China and the U.S.
Conservative Shift in Europe’s Economic Policy Towards China
On June 20, 2023, the EU formally introduced its first-ever economic security strategy, signaling a shift in its underlying economic logic from “efficiency-first” to “a balance between efficiency and security,” even prioritizing security in certain areas. External pressures and the escalating tensions between China and the U.S. have left the EU deeply concerned about risks and competitiveness. This economic security strategy outlines an approach involving enhancement, protection, and cooperation, aimed at reducing risks across various sectors. Undoubtedly, this strategy is geared towards reducing dependence on China and strengthening competition.
Opportunities for China-Europe Relations
Mutual Needs Outweigh Mutual Threats
Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Europe in 1975, the EU’s strategy towards China has primarily focused on engagement and cooperation. Their mutual needs now far outweigh zero-sum gains. However, as major power competition intensifies, the strategic cooperation between China and the EU continues to shape and be shaped by the international order. The EU’s policy towards China is influenced by economic preferences and internal divisions, leading to fragmented and inconsistent approaches, and the overall development of the China-EU comprehensive strategic partnership faces certain limitations.
Cooperation Between China and Europe Exceeds Competition
China and Europe share a highly complementary economic relationship, with deeply intertwined interests in addressing climate change, preserving biodiversity, and maintaining effective multilateralism. Despite differences in how China and the EU view each other and their relationship, both sides are strongly committed to enhancing dialogue and cooperation. Since the end of 2022, exchanges between China and Europe have been reinvigorated in the fields of trade, digital innovation, and environmental issues, with a series of achievements and agreements reached.
Common Ground Between China and Europe Surpasses Differences
In the context of the new geopolitical competition, the rivalry between China and the U.S. has expanded beyond economic, technological, and military security domains to encompass ideological and normative issues. Economically, unlike the U.S., the EU and European countries are unwilling to embark on a new Cold War, and economic interdependence between China and Europe continues to grow. Geographically, China and Europe are located at opposite ends of the Eurasian continent, with no direct geopolitical conflicts with the other. In terms of diplomacy, both parties share broad consensus on promoting multilateralism and global multipolarity, as well as numerous common interests, which were especially evident in their positions on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Exploring New Developments in China-Europe Relations
Establishing Correct Perceptions and Strengthening Mutual Political Trust
First, it is essential to maintain close ties through the state visits of leaders, which steer the development of China-Europe relations. Second, both sides should stick to their partnership orientation toward one another, strengthening shared interests, ideological consensus, and strategic alignment, thus injecting a China-Europe force into global peace and prosperity. Third, the fundamental direction of China-Europe cooperation should be upheld, with more focus on solidifying the bilateral foundation of their partnership.
Promoting Pragmatic Cooperation and Tightening the Economic and Trade Ties
For a long time, economic and trade cooperation has been a highlight and growth area in China-Europe relations. However, in recent years, economic and trade relations have entered a new phase characterized by more frequent friction. Ursula von der Leyen may persist in advancing the EU’s economic security strategy and its “de-risking” approach towards China during her second term. Despite these challenges, China and Europe’s economic and trade ties remain tightly interconnected, with deeply integrated interests. The EU has neither the willingness nor the capability to “decouple” from China. Furthermore, as Donald Trump returns to the White House, Europe’s concerns about transatlantic economic relations are increasing, leading the EU to adopt a more proactive stance in economic and trade cooperation with China. Therefore, for a considerable period ahead, there is still significant room for further growth in China-Europe economic and trade cooperation, which can be explored within the context of increasingly complex and intense competition. There are three main areas for growth. First, using the China-Europe electric vehicle trade dispute as an opportunity to discuss a new model of economic and trade cooperation with the EU; Second, promoting China’s high-level opening-up, which will offer new opportunities for China-Europe cooperation; and third, strengthening cooperation in areas such as green transformation.
Strengthening Dialogue to Promote Convergence while Managing Differences
First, it is important to work together constructively on the Ukraine issue. The European side should recognize China’s role as a peace contributor and builder, working alongside China to achieve a political resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Second, there is substantial overlap in the geopolitical perspectives of China and Europe, and through rational dialogue, both sides can alleviate doubts and deepen consensus. Third, enhancing cultural exchanges will solidify the foundation of public opinion supporting China-Europe friendship.
Conclusion
Over the past decade, China’s policy towards Europe has exhibited a high degree of continuity, grounded in the overarching principles of friendship, mutual trust, and cooperation. It has prioritized the establishment of a strategic, stable, and long-term bilateral relationship. China consistently supports the process of European integration, while emphasizing that European actors should respect the institutional choices and development trajectory determined by the Chinese people, and refrain from imposing on China their own values or models of governance.
Sustainable cooperation between China and Europe can only be achieved through mutual respect, the deepening of political trust, and the safeguarding of each party’s core interests. Looking forward, China envisions the European Union and its member states playing an autonomous and independent role as a pole in an increasingly multipolar international system—one that upholds the momentum of economic globalization and contributes to global order and stability. Amid evolving global dynamics, it is imperative for both sides to identify emerging areas of cooperation, advance trilateral or multilateral collaborative mechanisms, and expand converging interests to foster a more resilient and mutually beneficial partnership.
About the Author
This article is a special issue on China-Europe relations published in the Chinese Journal of European Studies, co-authored by the Project Group on China-Europe Relations at the Institute of European Studies of China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
About the Publication
This article is published in Chinese Journal of European Studies. Established in 1983, this journal is a bi-monthly academic journal published by the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The journal publishes research papers by Chinese scholars on various aspects of Europe, including the politics, economy, international relations, and socio-cultural issues of European countries and the European Communities. It also introduces research findings from the international academic community, provides background information on international issues, and reports on academic developments.