#3 China Scholar Insights: What will Take Place in Trump 2.0
Trump's China policy during his new term is a focal point of scholars' attention and will have a profound impact.
Welcome to the third edition of China Scholar Insights!
China Scholar Insights is a newly launched feature by ChinAffairs+, which aimed at providing you with the latest analysis on issues that Chinese scholars and strategic communities are focusing on. We will carefully select commentary articles and highlight key points. Questions or criticisms can be directed to sunchenghao@tsinghua.edu.cn.
ChinAffairs+ is a newsletter that shares Chinese academic articles focused on topics such as China’s foreign policy, China-U.S. relations, China-European relations, and more. This newsletter was co-founded by me and my research assistant, ZHANG Xueyu. I am SUN Chenghao, a fellow with the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, and currently a visiting scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School in the United States.
Chinese Scholars on Trump 2.0
Background
As Trump became the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, what policies he would adopt in his new term became the focus of scholars around the world. He regarded China as one of the largest rivals and tried to decouple from China in many fields such as economy, trade and technology. As the relationship between China and the U.S. is crucial to the global economic and political landscape, China policy that Trump will adopt when he returns to the White House will greatly affect the response of China and even the stability of the world.
Summary
Chinese scholars generally express concern about Trump’s China policy. They largely agree that Trump will continue to set up barriers and restrictions in the fields of economy, technology, geopolitics, and cultural exchanges, aiming to decouple from China. Scholars widely believe that Trump will continue to restrict Chinese-U.S. trade through measures such as raising tariffs and obstructing China’s access to core technologies. For geopolitical issues, Trump’s stance on Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues may create consensus between the U.S. and China, while his approach to the Taiwan issue is more influenced by hawkish members of his team and can cause tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Insights
Sun Chenghao: The policies during Trump's new term will pose greater risks to China-U.S. relations.
Trump administration’s policies towards China are expected to be more hawkish, especially in trade, technology and Taiwan(3T issues), leading to tensions in China-U.S. relations.
Decoupling of China-U.S. Trade with Greater Uncertainty: Trump is highly likely to decouple China-U.S. economic and trade ties by imposing substantial tariff increases. This move aims to strike a blow to China's manufacturing industry and promote the domestic manufacturing in the U.S., fulfilling his campaign promises. The implementation of this tariff system will sharpen contradictions in the field of China-U.S. trade and affect the stability of global supply chains.
From Small Yard, High Fence to a More Radical Unilateral Policy: Trump will further limit China-U.S. technological cooperation and even adopt direct trade blocks or export bans to cut off China’s access to key technologies. Compared to the Biden administration's establishment of a ‘technology alliance’ to jointly address competition with China , the Trump administration is more likely to adopt unilateral measures, which may adversely affect global technological innovation in a long term.
The Taiwan Strait Situation May Become More Tense: Rather than focusing on Taiwan-related issues, Trump is more likely to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China. However, due to the presence of many hawkish figures within Trump’s team, he may increase arms sales to Taiwan, elevate U.S.-Taiwan interactions, and push for Taiwan’s participation in international organizations. Combined with the reality of strained communication, the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait will be significantly increased.
China-U.S. Communication Across All Levels Will Be Further Obstructed: Diplomatic dialogues between China and the U.S. may decrease, making it difficult to alleviate tensions through communication. In terms of non-government exchanges, Trump may further tighten the restrictions implemented during his previous administration, such as restricting Chinese students and others traveling to the U.S. for communication.
The Space for China-U.S. Cooperation Will Be Squeezed, and China Needs to Take More Proactive Actions: Trump's foreign policy is characterized by unilateralism and transactionalism. This will make it difficult for China and the U.S. to effectively cooperate on global issues. In the face of the upcoming challenges, China should continue to contact with the U.S. on multi-level and seek rational voices in American society. In addition, China can engage in multilateral diplomacy and enhance cooperations with other countries, creating more strategic maneuvering space to cope with the shockwave of the Trump administration.
Zhu Feng : The China-U.S. relation under Trump 2.0
The Ironclad Leader of United States: As Trump secures his second term in the 2024 U.S. election with 312 electoral votes, defeating Harris. The Republican Party also won a majority in both houses of Congress. Under this circumstance, Trump will strengthen the power of the presidency to dominate the long-standing practices of the ‘deep state’ of the U.S administrative system.
Trump's second term will bring new changes to America and the world：Trump will comprehensively change the Biden administration’s immigration policy to severely control immigration and massively deport illegal immigrants. In addition, he will change trade policies with massively raising tariffs on goods, and threatening to launch a second trade war against China. Meanwhile, the U.S. will enter an era dominated by populism and the prioritisation of U.S. interests, and globalisation will be challenged as a result of the “America first” strategy.
In the Trump2.0 era, U.S. policy towards China is unlikely to undergo substantial changes : Trump’s re-election is hardly likely to substantially change U.S. policy toward China. Trump 2.0 era will continue Biden's strategy to suppress and curb China, inhibit China's strategic competitiveness, and possibly launch another trade war. Re-widening the gap in the power comparison between the U.S. and China will be the strategic approach that the Trump administration is likely to continue in its second term.
The trade war seems inevitable, but a complete economic and trade decoupling may be difficult to achieve: Although the U.S. wants to reduce its supply chain dependence on China, it is difficult to ‘decouple’ the U.S. from China. China is still an important source of U.S. goods imports, and the U.S chip war and tech war with China have affected its corporate earnings. Therefore, China and the U.S. still have reasonable space to resolve economic and trade issues, but there will be no substantial change in practices such as trade wars.
The situation across the Taiwan Strait will not easily get out of control: The Taiwan issue trend is a major point of interest in U.S.-China relations. After the U.S. sees China as its biggest rival, the Taiwan issue has become its ‘bargaining chip’ against China, and Trump version 2.0 will continue to arch the fire, but China and the U.S. are clear about the bottom line, and the probability of the Taiwan issue getting out of control in the near future is low.
The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and maintaining stability in Northeast Asia may become a point of cooperation between China and the United States: Trump’s attitude on the Ukraine issue may bring opportunities for cooperation in the geopolitical relationship between China and the U.S., and it would be conducive to improving U.S.-Russian relations and easing the dangerous situation of North Korea sending troops to aid Russia. However, China will not join the new Russia-North Korea comprehensive military and security cooperation agreement and opposes geopolitical fragmentation and camp confrontation in East Asia.
The overall situation of China-U.S. relations: With the proximity of China and the U.S. in terms of the ratio of power, the U.S. has identified China as its greatest rival, making substantial easing of China-American tensions difficult to achieve in the short term. However, the contradictions and conflicts between China and the U.S. must be managed. To achieve this, it is of utmost importance that both sides avoid crossing each other's red lines Meanwhile, maintaining people exchanges between China and the U.S. will be necessary.
Da Wei: How Will U.S.-China Relations Change After the Election
The U.S. : Prosperous or Declining?
The U.S. will maintain its advantages in economic, technological, and educational sectors for the long term, but it also faces various challenges, including significant wealth disparity, slow growth in high-paying jobs, severe political division, and stagnation in the Rust Belt, all of which affect people's sense of gain and satisfaction.
In response, Trump has put forward the slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA). To achieve this, Trump needs to redefine America’s growth model in an era of ebbing globalization, balancing efficiency and equity. However, with no further markets to tap, entrenched political divisions impeding institutional innovation, and technological advancements beyond the president's direct influence, it is challenging for Trump to address this issue effectively.
China-U.S. Relations: The “uncomfortable coexistence” lasts for a long time
China and the U.S. are still in a state of “uncomfortable coexistence.” Both governments feel that the current state of relations is not ideal, but they must maintain contact and interaction to address issues such as climate change, public health, and artificial intelligence governance, to protect public interests.
The China-U.S. Relations May Face More Setbacks
The U.S. has positioned China as a significant rival, not imminent but extremely substantial. However, due to the high degree of connection between the two countries in the era of globalization, suppression is difficult to carry out. Regardless of the difficulties, if Trump is elected, China-U.S. relations will deteriorate. This decline would be evident in the cessation of official communication channels and increased friction, leading to a vicious cycle in economic issues such as tariffs and investment. Many officials within Trump's team hold hostile views toward China and are reluctant to engage in dialogues with the Chinese.
Reflections on Neoliberalism
Trump Administrations’ policies have a more pronounced internal inclination, not sacrificing economic interests to maintain international leadership, and not taking responsibility and obligations for allies. After all, Trump’s election is a result of the U.S. rethinking neoliberal globalization: voters hold nationalist and populist ideas, deciding to abandon neoliberalism. In addition, swing states and key counties are precisely where the drawbacks of globalization are felt, which also leads to this result.
In the long run, Trump’s election will have significant political implications, creating space for China-Europe Cooperation while directly impacting China-U.S. relations, with specific impacts that will only become apparent after two or three years.
WANG Yong: Trump’s return to power will escalate the containment against China, but China is capable of responding effectively
Trump’s China Policy may lead to a "reset" in China-U.S. relation
The U.S. is likely to lean toward conservatism, and Trump’s China policy will primarily focus on strategic “decoupling”, applying comprehensive pressure on China. This will pose more challenges for China in areas such as trade, technology, investment, and regional influence.
The risks of decoupling and breaking industrial and supply chains are increasing
The increased tariffs will harm not only China but also U.S. consumers and American importers. However, Trump may continue to push for more tariffs to fulfill his campaign promises. U.S. and China may form two separate economic systems and supply chains centered around their respective markets in the future.
Taiwan issues faced with greater uncertainty
Although Trump himself may favor a more cautious approach, he will likely be influenced by the far-right Republicans and use Taiwan issues as means to contain China. However, the U.S. military strength in the Western Pacific has relatively weakened and such actions may carry greater risks.
Changes in South China Sea issues remain to be seen
South China Sea issues may become another lever for far-right Republicans to contain China. Trump may demand more ‘protection fees’ from the United States’ allies and other relevant countries, leading to the strain of the U.S. relations with these countries. It remains uncertain whether the U.S. will have the capacity to challenge China in this area.
China will take measures to effectively respond to challenges
Leverage advantages to expand opportunities for greater commercial activities: China has growth potential in markets beyond the U.S. and other developed countries. Chinese products also enjoy technological and pricing advantages. Chinese enterprises, relying on their own capabilities, will be able to overcome external challenges and discover more business opportunities in other countries' markets.
Broaden shared interests between China and U.S. through communication and exchanges: Having already experienced Trump's previous tenure, China's industrial competitiveness and technological innovation have significantly improved. Facing Trump’s second term, the most important thing for China and the U.S. is to engage in communication and dialogues. Timely and effective communication to understand each other's intentions and capabilities is crucial. The shared interests and interdependence between China and the U.S. will play a positive role in restraining extreme tendencies and actions.
Gong Bing: Trump declares victory, analysis of China’s Economic and Trade Policies
Trump 2.0 will escalate economic and trade pressure on China:
Between 2017 and 2021, the Trump administration’s economic and trade policy toward China has strong “unilateralism” and “mercantilism” tendencies. By the end of Trump’s term, the administration had established a comprehensive framework for decoupling the U.S.-China economic and technological relations, systematically suppressing China’s advancements in trade, technology, and key industries.
Since 2023, Trump has repeatedly emphasized that, if re-elected, he would continue pursuing an “America First” strategy with a unilateral and mercantilist approach, suggesting an all-encompassing upgrade to suppressing China’s trade, technological, and industrial development.
Trump’s Decoupling Strategies under Financial and Political Pressure:
Trump’s 2024 economic and trade policy toward China will likely focus on three dimensions: trade tariffs, export and investment restrictions, and industrial policies targeting economic decoupling and domestic manufacturing.
In addition to trade, Trump may pursue stricter export, investment, and financing restrictions on China due to their diplomatic benefits and lower political cost compared to tariffs, as their economic impact on Americans is less immediate. Futhermore, Trump’s 2023 campaign on industrial policy, outlined a “Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative (SNMI)” to end U.S. reliance on China in critical sectors.
Technologucal Strategy of Trump 2.0: Small Yards, High Fence to Large Yards, High Fence:
In an “extreme scenario” where Trump fully implements his trade policies and China responds with reciprocal countermeasures, the global economy could face severe disruptions, increasing the risk of a recession and destabilizing the current trade system. Trump may also expand his “small yards, high fence” to “large yards, high fence” approaching broader restrictions on more technology sectors.
China: Embrace Self-Reliance, Seek Cooperation
The United States’ suppression of the chip industry has driven Chinese firms to invest heavily in independent research and development, accelerating efforts toward “de-Americanization” across production processes and reducing reliance on foreign technology in mid-to-high-end chips. While the U.S. maintains an edge in cutting-edge fields, its dominance in mid-to-high-end technologies has been eroding, as China continues to make rapid advancements. Meanwhile, European firms are adopting defensive strategies against the U.S. export restrictions. Supported by its mid-to-high-end industry chains and vast domestic market, China can offset the effects of stricter U.S. policies with well-calibrated responses.
Conclusion
Trump's China policy is expected to pose challenges to China-U.S. relations across various fields. However, in the era of globalization, despite the U.S. viewing China as one of its biggest competitors, it is difficult for these two countries to completely decouple. There is still room for cooperation and China needs to adopt more flexible and effective countermeasures to offset the adverse effects of Trump’s policies.
Writers and Editors for Today’s Newsletter:
Writers：
WANG Jiaying, HU Lingzhi, BAI Xuhan, GAO Liangyu, and HNIN Lei Lei Wai, Tsinghua University
Editors:
SUN Chenghao, ZHANG Xueyu, U.S.-Europe Program, Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University
